With two weeks left in the regular season, we are near the end of our race to 40 picks.
After some close calls in last week's slate, Reed Wallach has opened up a four-game lead on Pat Forde as we near the finish line. Both pickers are hitting at over 50%, and the race has been tight. Can Forde get enough back in time to beat out Wallach?
There are plenty of consequential games on the docket for Week 13, and our two pickers have gone up and down the board to find five picks each.
Here's where they landed.
Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 13Pat Forde's Picks Against the Spread
Pat's Season Wins: 31
UCF vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick
Pick: West Virginia +3
The Mountaineers haven’t been a very good home team, but the Knights also have not been a good road team. This is Senior Day in Morgantown, with low temperatures and a chance of snow – not exactly the conditions a visiting team from Florida with questionable remaining motivation likes to see. Take that home ‘dog.
Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
Pick: Minnesota +11.5
All the makings of a trap game here, if the Gophers are good enough. Minnesota has an open-date advantage, not playing last week, while the Nittany Lions are on the road for the second straight Saturday. The only time a P.J. Fleck-coached Minnesota team hosted Penn State, the Gophers won and stormed the field in 2019.
Texas A&M vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Teams in the playoff chase will be out to put numbers on the board in hopes of swaying the selection committee. The Aggies are only slight favorites against an Auburn team that just isn’t very good. This could be a pretty low-scoring game, but A&M is going to have more points than Auburn.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Pick: Alabama -13.5
See above. Crimson Tide is sitting on the playoff bubble, and the Sooners are in disarray. Since losing to Tennessee, Alabama has outscored its opponents 128-20. This could get ugly and stay ugly.
Colorado State vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Colorado State +3
This one doesn’t quite compute. Bulldogs have lost two straight to bad teams (Hawaii and Air Force). Rams have won five straight and have a direct path to the Mountain West championship game. Fresno’s struggling offense won’t get much against Colorado State’s solid defense. Rams win a close one as a road ‘dog.
Reed Wallach's Picks Against the Spread
Reed's Season Wins: 35
North Carolina State vs. Georgia Tech Prediction and Pick
Pick: North Carolina State +8.5
The last time we saw Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets were shaking up the top of college football by upsetting Miami with a near-service academy approach.
As a big underdog, Brent Key has thrived, now 13-6 against the spread at GT, but the same can’t be said as a favorite laying a boatload of points, just 3-5-1 against the number.
The team hosts North Carolina State on Thursday, who has had an up-and-down season, but are much closer than this number indicates. Out of a BYE week, and with a win securing bowl eligibility, the Wolfpack have plenty to play for around freshman quarterback CJ Bailey and a talented group of wide receivers.
Further, suppose quarterback Haynes King’s shoulder continues to be compromised. In that case, the Yellow Jackets’ run-heavy approach will be easily sussed out with a week to prepare and is not the preferred method for a favorite to win with margin.
I’m happy to grab the points with the Wolfpack.
Illinois vs. Rutgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rutgers +1
The formula to beat Illinois is simple, get pressure on the quarterback, and run the ball well.
The Fighting Illini have struggled in the trenches all season long, and Rutgers sets up to have matchup edges on both sides of the ball.
The Scarlet Knights are 31st in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, which can lead to drop-off from the Illinois passing game. Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer is completing only 45% of his passes on dropbacks that are under pressure, posting a 44% passer grade.
Meanwhile, look for the healthy Kyle Monangai to have a big day on the ground for Rutgers on his senior day, Illinois is 107th in EPA/Rush.
BYU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arizona State -3
This matchup sets up real well for the Sun Devils.
The defense has emerged as one of the best run-stopping units in the nation, ranking top 15 in EPA/Rush, and can limit the BYU rushing attack that has been trending up since lead back LJ Martin returned from injury. If Martin can’t get downhill and get BYU into favorable down and distances, I believe that the Sun Devils can get off the field with relative ease.
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has had some strong showings, but there are still plenty of suspect plays on the field, making 12 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. There was typical regression coming his way, and it happened against Kansas at home. How will he respond on the road?
Meanwhile, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State has been the engineer of Dillingham’s offense in the passing game, playing sound football all season and keeping the ball out of harm's way. Leavitt has made eight big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.
There should be opportunities for Leavitt to take some shots down the field in this one as Arizona State should stay ahead of schedule for this one with Skattebo on the ground against a BYU defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.
Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
Pick: Minnesota +11.5
Full agreement with Pat here.
Two teams that play a similar style may lead to a low scoring sluggish affair.
While Penn State has far more explosive weapons, the Minnesota defensive line has been fantastic all season as the defense keeps everything in front of them, ranking top 30 in both explosive rush and pass defense.
Meanwhile, Golden Gophers’ transfer quarterback Max Brosmer has been on point all season, posting an above-average passing success rate. With a week for the team to heal up, I like the home underdog to stay within shouting distance.
Army vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Notre Dame -14.5
We’ve seen this before.
While Army isn’t the same as Navy, the Fighting Irish took on the Midshipmen a few weeks back and the talent gap was far too big.
The Black Knights have been a great story all year, but the truth of the matter is that a good part of its success can be attributed to its schedule, which hasn’t faced an offense or defense that is top 50 on either side of the ball.
Notre Dame is 15th in EPA/Play on offense and second in EPA/Play on defense and also has prepared for the triple option already this season.
Further, the team is running it up on every opponent when it gets the chance. While the team has also feasted on a soft schedule, the team is winning by an average margin of 32.25.
The Army defensive line has been its weakest point all season, ranking outside the top 110 nationally in defensive line and tackles for loss. Further, the team is top five in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
Reality sets in for Army this week, and Notre Dame continues to bludgeon opponents.
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