Jump to a matchupDenver Broncos (9–5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8–6)Houston Texans (9–5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13–1)Pittsburgh Steelers (10–4) at Baltimore Ravens (9–5)Philadelphia Eagles (12–2) at Washington Commanders (9–5)Minnesota Vikings (12–2) at Seattle Seahawks (8–6)
We’re down to the final three weeks of the NFL regular season and there are still many playoff spots available and division titles up for grabs.
Perhaps the first game of Week 16 will give us another clinched playoff spot if the Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night. The Chargers could also officially earn a playoff spot with a win over the Broncos, but will need some help on Sunday.
Surprisingly, there could be three playoff teams from the AFC West, which not many expected heading into the season. No one doubted the Kansas City Chiefs would be a playoff team again—and they already wrapped up the AFC West—but there’s concern regarding the health of Patrick Mahomes, who injured his ankle last week against the Cleveland Browns.
With the Chiefs still battling for the No. 1 seed, they might roll the dice and play Mahomes on Saturday against the Houston Texans. Kansas City is in the midst of a brutal three-game stretch in 11 days. Perhaps we’ll see backup Carson Wentz against Houston’s rugged defense if the Chiefs decide to play it safe.
The Baltimore Ravens can gain ground in the AFC North by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Pittsburgh got the best of its divisional rival in the first meeting, but might enter Baltimore without George Pickens and T.J. Watt, two star players who are both dealing with injuries.
We’ll also keep close tabs on the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
THURSDAYDenver Broncos (9–5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8–6)
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Spread: Chargers -2.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto vs. Chargers’ tackles. Bonitto is starting to gain attention for Defensive Player of the Year with the way he’s impacted games this season. Bonitto, who has 11.5 sacks this season, has returned an interception and a fumble recovery for touchdowns, including last week’s 50-yard return against the Indianapolis Colts. But now the third-year edge rusher has to deal with the Chargers’ dominant bookend tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. This might be the one strength on a thin Chargers’ offense. —
Key stat: The Broncos have the NFL’s top defense in points allowed per drive (1.51), and they face a hobbled Chargers offense that without J.K. Dobbins this year has scored a mere 17 points in each of its past three games. —
Start ’em/sit ’em: Bo Nix has posted a pair of subpar stat lines, scoring a combined 25.7 fantasy points in his past two games. He remains a borderline QB1 this week though, facing a Chargers defense that’s allowing more than 17 points per game to quarterbacks since Week 8. Nix also beat the Lightning Bolts for 20.7 fantasy points when the two faced off in Week 6. —
Best bet: Broncos +2.5. The Chargers’ biggest strengths in the first half of the season were running the ball and playing solid defense. Both of those strengths have diminished lately. Dobbins went down with an injury and teams are figuring out how to move the ball against the Los Angeles defense. Now, Justin Herbert & Co. will need to throw the ball against the Broncos’ secondary, which is the best in the NFL. I’ll take the points with Denver. —
SI’s pick:I like Denver. Justin Herbert was beat up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago and I would guess Vance Joseph is going to press the line in a similar way and try to unleash the Broncos’ pass rush. In a game that has major playoff implications, we’ll see if the Chargers can get themselves off the mat in time. I’m calling a narrow Denver win highlighted by a few big Nix rushes. —
SATURDAYHouston Texans (9–5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13–1)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Chiefs -3 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rushers vs. Chiefs’ OL. If the Chiefs clear Patrick Mahomes to play despite an ankle injury, they’re taking a big risk because their offensive line has struggled most of the season and have the daunting challenge of containing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The duo has a combined 22.5 sacks, exactly half of Houston’s 45 sacks, second best in the league. Kansas City has had a rotation at left tackle with Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries and even stud guard Joe Thuney, who filled in admirably last week against the Browns. —
Key stat: Houston has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud this season, allowing 46 sacks, the fourth-most in football. While the Chiefs have registered a middling 32 sacks, they’ve been terrific with 11 sacks in three games since the return of Charles Omenihu to the defensive line. —
Start ’em/sit ’em: Stroud has been one of the biggest fantasy duds of the season, failing to score more than 16 points in eight consecutive games. Next up is a bad matchup on paper against the Chiefs, whose defense has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Unless you’re in a super flex league, Stroud needs to be benched. —
Best bet: Texans +3. I liked the Chiefs when they were underdogs before the Mahomes news, but with their starting quarterback now on track to play Saturday, the value has flipped to Houston as a field goal underdog. The Chiefs’ biggest strength is their third down offense, but now they have to face one of the best third down defenses in the NFL. Houston ranks third in opponent third down conversion percentage, second in opponent third down EPA, and first in opponent third down success rate. —
SI’s pick: I took the Chiefs because, even with the possibility that Carson Wentz starts (Mahomes was a full participant in practice Tuesday), I like what I think Steve Spagnuolo can do to a shaky Stroud. This Chiefs’ defense is the biggest part of Kansas City’s narrow win streak because of its ability to clamp down and limit big scoring performances, not that the Texans have looked prime for one of those against a top-tier opponent in a while. —
